The Houston Rockets will visit the Miami Heat in a cross-conference matchup on Monday’s NBA schedule. Miami is 20-15 overall and 9-6 at home, while Houston is 18-16 overall and 3-10 on the road. Miami has dominated the recent head-to-head series, winning each of the last six matchups. The Rockets are 20-12-2 against the spread in 2023-24, while the Heat are 16-18-1 against the line.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Heat are favored by 4 points in the latest Rockets vs. Heat odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 219 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Rockets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 112-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Houston vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Rockets vs. Heat:
Heat vs. Rockets spread: Heat -4
Heat vs. Rockets over/under: 219 points
Heat vs. Rockets money line: Heat: -178, Rockets: +148
Heat vs. Rockets picks: See picks at SportsLine
What you need to know about the Rockets
Last Saturday, Houston didn’t have too much breathing room in its game against the Milwaukee Bucks, but its still walked away with a 112-108 win. The win was just what the Rockets needed coming off of a 122-95 defeat in their prior matchup. Alperen Sengun led Houston with 21 points to go along with 11 rebounds and four assists.
Houston hangs its hat on the defensive end under new coach Ime Udoka as the Rockets rank in the top three in both points allowed and defensive rating. That’s despite the team ranking in the bottom 10 in both steals and blocks per game. The Rockets hound the perimeter, allowing the lowest 3-point percentage in the league. However, Houston will be undermanned on Monday as two of its top six scorers are sidelined in Dillon Brooks (oblique) and Tari Eason (leg). See which team to pick here.
What you need to know about the Heat
Meanwhile, Miami lost to the Phoenix Suns on the road by a decisive 113-97 margin on Friday. The Heat were down 94-75 at the end of the third quarter, which was just too much to recover from. The loss doesn’t tell the whole story though, as several players had good games. One of the most active was Bam Adebayo, who dropped a double-double on 28 points and 11 rebounds.
Jimmy Butler did not play in that game, and he is sidelined again on Monday with a toe sprain. However, Miami has plenty of depth without him as eight Heat players are averaging in double figures. Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has especially been a bright spot as over the last 22 games, he’s averaging 16.5 points on 51.3% shooting to go along with 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists. See which team to pick here.
Key Betting Info
The Heat will be relying on another big game from Adebayo to pull off a victory. For the season, Adebayo has averaged 22 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1 block.
The Rockets have performed about as expected as the underdog this season and currently sit at 9-14 as such. They better be ready for this one, as the Heat are 14-5 when favored to win this season.
Some of the betting trends to consider are:
The Heat are 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 games when the spread was between -6 to -3.
The Rockets are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games when the spread was between +3 to +6.
The Rockets are 20-10-2 against the spread in their last 32 games vs teams allowing more than 102 points per game.
How to make Heat vs. Rockets picks
The model has simulated Heat vs. Rockets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.